Introduction
Official data from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) released in December indicates that the UK property market demonstrated notable resilience during October, despite a backdrop of economic uncertainty and pre-budget anticipation.
The number of completed residential property transactions reached 98,450 on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking a 2% monthly increase from September’s total of 96,730.
Industry leaders note that transaction levels reflect a market that has steadied itself, with needs-based activity underpinning turnover even as many participants awaited clarity on government policy changes.
The figures suggest both the residential and commercial real estate sectors entered a period of cautious confidence heading into the winter.
Overview of HMRC’s October Transaction Data
HMRC’s latest figures confirm that residential property transactions have continued to strengthen, reaching a seven-month high in October.
Transactions increased by 2% compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Non-seasonally adjusted figures rose by 13% over the same period, highlighting a rebound in activity after summer.
Official statistics show that 98,450 seasonally adjusted residential transactions took place in October, the highest total since March 2025.
The data also point to a normalisation following particularly subdued activity and widespread uncertainty preceding the autumn budget.
Residential Market Performance Shows Stability
Year-on-year comparisons indicate the market is still operating at lower levels than prior to several rounds of interest rate rises and major fiscal announcements.
However, industry leaders note that the sector has not experienced a significant decline. Instead, the market appears to be “drifting slightly lower than October 2024”, according to Andrew Lloyd, managing director at property data provider Search Acumen.
Lloyd observed that buyers and sellers had largely paused activity in response to speculation surrounding government policy. “This isn’t a collapse, it’s a pause,” he stated. The combination of usual seasonal slowdown and pre-budget caution suppressed momentum, but did not cause a sharp contraction.
Commercial Property Transactions: Mixed Recovery
In the commercial property sector, seasonally adjusted non-residential transactions grew by 4% between September and October 2025.
However, compared with October 2024, commercial transactions were 29% lower, reflecting broader caution among investors and businesses. The non-seasonally adjusted commercial sector saw a 10% rise in completed transactions month on month.
This discrepancy signals a mixed but gradually improving picture for the non-residential market, as certain subsectors respond more positively to the evolving economic landscape.
Industry Experts Weigh in on Market Sentiment
Industry figures note that the overall property market remains fundamentally strong, underpinned by transactions driven by lifestyle needs such as upsizing, downsizing, or relocating for work and family reasons.
Iain McKenzie, Chief Executive of The Guild of Property Professionals, highlighted that increased stock levels are affording buyers more choice, keeping house price growth modest. Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, described the figures as indicative of a market “on pause”, with some activity driven by efforts to complete transactions ahead of the budget deadline.
He suggested that homeowners just above fiscal thresholds, such as the £2 million mark, may adjust their approach, while increased demand is likely in more affordable segments.
Economic Indicators and Future Outlook
Falling inflation and the prospect of a rate cut by the Bank of England have contributed to renewed optimism for the sector. Affordability is expected to improve as wage growth outpaces house price inflation.
Mortgage approvals, another key market indicator, remain stable, supporting the view that a gradual return of cautious confidence is underway. Nathan Emerson, Chief Executive of Propertymark, noted that lower base interest rates compared to the previous year have helped support activity levels.
He pointed to the positive direction in both year-on-year and month-on-month non-seasonally adjusted transaction figures, reinforcing the stability highlighted in HMRC’s data.
Final Summary
The latest HMRC figures for October 2025 indicate that the UK property market has withstood recent economic pressures and political uncertainty, with both residential and commercial sectors exhibiting growth over the preceding month.
Market resilience is attributed to needs-based activity and early signs of improving affordability, despite ongoing caution and external pressures. Looking ahead, greater policy clarity, potential interest rate reductions, and increased housing stock are likely to underpin further stability.
Regional variations and price adjustments are anticipated, but experts generally expect a steady rate of recovery as 2026 approaches. For those monitoring UK property and transaction trends, digital tools such as the Pie app can support informed decisions in an evolving marketplace.
