LONDON, Oct 1 – Residential property sales slowed in August as uncertainty over the upcoming Autumn Budget weighed on the housing market, new HMRC figures reveal.
The tax authority reported 93,630 seasonally adjusted transactions, 2% higher than August 2024 but 2% down compared with July 2025. On a non-adjusted basis, sales reached 103,610 – 1% lower year on year and 2% higher month on month.
HMRC records August figures
The HMRC data underlines a mixed picture for the property sector. While annual figures remain positive, momentum appears to have weakened during the late summer.
Property analysts attribute the shift partly to speculation around housing tax reforms expected in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November Budget.
Annual rise but monthly dip
Despite the monthly slowdown, activity remains stronger than in 2023. Transactions are currently running about 10% above last year, signalling that the post-pandemic recovery has not yet reversed.
Analysts caution, however, that confidence remains fragile as high borrowing costs and political uncertainty deter some buyers and sellers.
Zoopla highlights plateau
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, said activity was levelling out.
“Housing transactions slowed over August but they are 10% higher than in 2023 as the recovery in transactions starts to plateau due to higher borrowing costs and broader economic uncertainty,” he noted.
Donnell warned that demand for high-value homes had already softened ahead of the Budget, amid speculation of possible changes to property taxation.
Jackson-Stops sees cautious momentum
Nick Leeming, chairman of estate agency Jackson-Stops, said August’s figures reflected steady progress despite ongoing headwinds.
“Completions are moving in the right direction, buoyed by improving affordability conditions and a pragmatic commitment from buyers and sellers to move forward,” he explained.
But Leeming stressed the market was “sensitive to economic events” and that speculation around housing reform was already having an impact.
Propertymark urges confidence
Propertymark chief executive Nathan Emerson highlighted the need for stability to encourage more buyers.
“People need to feel a greater degree of confidence as they approach their next house move, and continued economic uncertainty and high interest rates have no doubt deterred some consumers,” he said.
Emerson pointed to easing mortgage rates and early signs of softening house prices as potential sources of relief heading into autumn.
Mortgage rates ease
Falling borrowing costs have helped restore some confidence among buyers, particularly first-time purchasers. Lenders have begun offering improved mortgage products, supporting affordability after a year of rising rates.
But analysts warn that any sudden policy changes in the Budget could disrupt this tentative recovery.
Budget uncertainty weighs
With the November Autumn Statement looming, speculation over potential reforms to property taxes including stamp duty and capital gains tax has made some buyers more cautious.
Experts suggest transaction levels are unlikely to rise significantly until after the Chancellor outlines her housing policy.
Market outlook
The outlook for the housing market will depend heavily on policy decisions in the coming weeks.
As Emerson noted: “The Budget in November and the Bank of England’s next base rate decision will both play a big part in determining the level of confidence people have moving forward.”
For now, HMRC’s August figures point to a sector caught between modest recovery and the weight of economic and political uncertainty.
HMRC’s August figures show a cautious housing market: transactions remain above 2023 levels but slowed month-on-month as Budget uncertainty and possible tax reforms weigh on demand. High-value homes are already feeling the effect as buyers pause for clarity on policy.
Falling mortgage costs have helped restore some confidence, but analysts warn that any unexpected changes in November’s Autumn Budget or Bank of England rate moves could quickly reverse that recovery. The market’s near-term momentum will depend on a stable economic backdrop and clear, measured policy decisions.
For homeowners, buyers and landlords wanting to track how policy and mortgage moves affect their plans, the Pie app provides tools to monitor income, costs and tax implications helping users plan ahead as the situation evolves.
